According the to highly acclaimed election prediction and polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight.com, Florida now leads all other states with a 24% chance of determining the outcome of the 2008 election. The website uses a sophisticated algorithm based on current polling data to make their daily "tipping point states" calculation.
This development does not come as a surprise to most political observers, given the fact that NBC News/Mason-Dixon and Quinnipiac both released polls earlier this week showing John McCain's steady lead in the Florida has evaporated. For the first time since both candidates won their party's respective primary contests this spring, Real Clear Politics now shows Obama leading McCain (by a 1.4% margin) in the bellwether state. Two weeks ago, the Obama campaign released a strategy video in which campaign manager David Plouffe announced that the campaign would be investing a stunning $39 million into Florida alone. It has yet to be seen whether or not this investment will pay off in the long term, but at the moment there doesn't seem to be a better place to send resources than the Sunshine State.
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1 comment:
Thanks for this Ian!
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