The X Factor on Election Day

As the mainstream media pours over the latest polling numbers and debates the magnitude of Barack Obama's lead, they pay little attention to a key factor that will likely determine the outcome in many key swing states: the ground game. Polling data gives a decent account of whom Americans support while sitting on their couch at home, but elections are determined by which citizens are motivated enough to get off their couches and into the polling booth on election day. Anyone who has worked on political campaigns can attest to the fact that turnout is largely effected by which campaign has the field operation in place to remind the greatest number of their supporters to get out and vote.

The difficulty in reporting the strength of the field operations of each campaign is obvious. Campaigns don't release public data on how many volunteers they have, which leaves pundits and anchors pontificating on the impact that get-out-the-vote (GOTV) activity will have. However, there are a few things the media does know. In Colorado, the Obama campaign has 50 offices in the state, compared to 12 for McCain. The number of campaign offices and field staffers that each campaign has does provide a useful metric in judging the magnitude of each campaign's field program, and the Obama campaign leads in both of these categories.

What impact will the ground game have on the final outcome of the election? We will know the answer on election night if the results don't reflect what the polls predict.